Which forecasting method involves experts working anonymously and independently to produce estimates?

The forecasting method that involves experts working anonymously and independently to produce estimates is known as Delphi Forecasting. This approach is characterized by its systematic gathering of opinions from a panel of experts, who provide their forecasts independently without any group influence. The process typically includes several rounds of questioning, where feedback from previous rounds is shared to refine estimates and converge towards a consensus.

Delphi Forecasting is particularly valuable in situations where uncertainty is high, and data may be limited. It allows the richness of expert opinion to surface while mitigating bias or domination by a stronger personality in group discussions. The anonymity of participants fosters openness and honesty in their responses, encouraging them to express their views freely.

This method contrasts with the other forecasting techniques mentioned. For instance, homoscedasticity refers to a statistical property concerning the variance of errors in regression models, while econometric forecasting integrates statistical methods with economic theories to predict future trends based on historical data. Exponential smoothing, on the other hand, is primarily a quantitative forecasting technique that relies on past data points with decreasing weights assigned to older observations. Thus, Delphi Forecasting stands out for its unique collaborative yet independent approach to harnessing expert insights.